Thursday, December 17, 2009

Deconstructing Delmon

OK, so by now you may have noticed the picture in the sidebar of this blog.

If not, here it is again:




This is a shirt that I paid to have created at MLB.com. If you see a guy at a Twins game wearing this shirt, it's me. Say hello, won't you?

As more postings become more plentiful here, you will notice that I rag a lot on Delmon Young. And while a fan ragging on a player is nothing new, I feel as if I must offer some explanation. I don't actually hate Delmon Young. I've honestly never met the guy. His play on the baseball field makes me angry some most of the time, but he's honestly a much better baseball player than I could ever be. I've shouted some pretty awful things at Mr. Young, and, looking back, I feel a little bad about it. I believe therapists call my behavior deflecting, as Delmon is not the real problem.

My real beef lies with the Twins front office, who did the trade for Young. The deal -- which sent Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and prospect Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay for Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie -- was Bill Smith's first major decision, and he totally crapped on it. It seemed that both Garza and Young were butting heads with their respective clubs at the time, so the teams pulled a switcheroo. After two years, it has become apparent that the Twins got the raw end of the deal.

Young, an AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2007, seemed like a star on the rise when he came to Minnesota. After two seasons as a Twin, he's put up a modest .287/.322/.415 line with some terrible defense. He's butted heads with Minnesota staff (seeing a trend?), and (obviously) hasn't turned into the stud power hitter the front office was looking for.

In the meantime, Bartlett went bananas behind the plate in '09 before getting injured, while putting up slightly below-average numbers defensively. I blame his 2009 UZR numbers on small sample size, however, since he had put up above-average stats every other year of regular playing time. His offensive numbers might also reflect a bit of luck, considering his career-high BABIP.

Bartlett:
G AVG HR RBI SLG OBP ISO BABIP wRAA
137 .320 14 66 .490 .389 .170 .368 28.1

In all fairness, these were certainly career numbers for the most part. The baseball world as a whole was pretty surprised about these numbers. It could have been the change of scenery, or just one of those things where a dude finds his swing further into his career than most, but Bartlett impressed many in '09.

The other major Twin to go, Garza has put together two very respectable seasons in Tampa Bay, especially considering he pitched in the AL East. He was a bit of a hard-luck loser in '09, but his stats still prove he is a solid # 2 or 3 starter.

Garza '08-'09:
ERA WHIP HR/9 K/9 BB/9 FIP
3.82 1.25 1.02 7.31 3.19 4.15

The HR and BB are a little higher than I'd like, but, overall, not too bad for a 26-year-old AL pitcher.

Meanwhile, in Delmonland, things aren't going well. Young lost a lot of at-bats in 2009, as Gardenhire/Smith created a traffic jam in the outfield to, in many opinions, light a fire under him. And while he certainly picked it up at the end of the season, admittedly during a very-needed time, his output has still not reached what was imagined or hoped for.

Michael Lewis, in his controversial book Moneyball, talked a lot about the old guard in baseball -- the group of scouts and executives who make their decisions based on how a player looks on the field, and not in a box score. And no matter how you feel about the book, you have to admit that you can see a little bit of truth. The Young signing reeks of this ideology. I'm sure the scouts saw a big guy who looked like he had power potential. Since his brother Dmitri played in the Bigs, I'm sure they saw "good genes" as part of the equation. Of course, being a ROY runner-up also help to tout him. Thirteen HR and 93 RBI in a rookie campaign is certainly nothing to sneeze at. But, even a cursory look at his K rate, BB rate, and OBP should have told them that while he had a chance to contribute, it wouldn't be at a very high level.

Let's talk just a little bit about defense. People argue about UZR, and it's certainly not an end-all of defensive stats. But, a UZR/150 of -25.6 aside, anyone whose seen Young play in the outfield consistently will concur that he's pretty brutal out there. Bad routes, poor speed, and an overall lack of hustle makes me cringe every time a ball is hit in his direction. With him and Cuddyer in the corners, Denard Span better cover a lot of ground out there.

So, where does that leave the Twins? To be honest, I was sort of cheering along with Young's push down the stretch, hoping it might increase his trade value. But, I'm afraid the secret's out. The Twins offered arbitration to Young, so he will be around for at least one more year, barring a trade. However, now that Carlos Gomez is a Brewer, there aren't a whole lot of outfield options available for the next few years. Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere are certainly making their marks in the minors, but they're at least a couple years away from making the big league squad.

Now, admittedly, I'm a bit of a stathead (and a member of SABR), but I think this situation shows just how valuable a little stat work can be. The off-season is still quite young, and there is a lot that can still be done. Here's hoping that some peripherals will be looked at before Smith and the gang make another move.